This presentation about a data science scoping framework called Project Understanding.

Learning a data science scoping framework is a great way to improve as a data scientist.

“A less technical data scientist can be more effective than a more technical data scientist with the right data science scoping framework.”

• Anyone know a data science process?
• Anyone use a data science process?

A data science process includes:

1. data science workflow (e.g. CRISP-DM)
2. collaboration framework (e.g. Data Driven Scrum)

The data science workflow provides the what and the collaboration framework provides the how.

This workshop is not about data science processes is in general. To learn about data science processes I recommend the Data Science Process Alliance. This organisation provides blogs and courses (e.g. Data Science Team Lead).

A data science workflow provides guidance (i.e. what tasks should be performed and how) during data science projects. Data science workflows aim to improve project:

1. consistency
2. efficiency
3. success rate

The results of a poll conducted by the DSPA of the most popular data science processes.

Three of these data science processes are data science workflows:

• CRISP-DM (from IBM)
• Team Data Science Process (from Microsoft)
• SEMMA (from SAS)

The most popular data science workflow is CRISP-DM.

The CRISP-DM data science workflow:

• most popular data science workflow (49% usage)
• hierarchical structure of phases, tasks and outcomes
• comprehensive 76 page CRISP-DM guide
• CRISP-DM figure and table

CRISP-DM consists of 6 phases and 24 tasks, see the CRISP-DM guide for details. The 6 phases of CRISP-DM are:

1. Business Understanding
2. Data Understanding
3. Data Preparation
4. Modelling
5. Evaluation
6. Deployment

These phases are represented as vertices in a directed graph were the edges represent transitions between phases.

CRISP-DM guide, p. 10

CRISP-DM guide, p. 12

CRISP-DM is over thirty years old. NICD uses a modified CRISP-DM that has updated some of the phases, tasks and outcomes.

• We updated Business Understanding to Project Understanding for generality.

Project Understanding is a data science scoping framework. This presentation only focuses on the first phase of the NICD workflow.

Why?

• (probably) the most important phase
• data science scoping is under emphasised
• difference between a good and a great data scientist

Project Understanding has four tasks:

1. Determine Project Objectives
2. Assess Situation
3. Determine Data Science Questions
4. Plan Project

I would like to focus on the first and third tasks.

The determine project objectives task has three outcomes:

1. background
2. project objectives
3. success criteria

The background is a paragraph that provides the context to the project. For example, the background for your projects would include information about the global climate change and its effect on the north east.

The project objectives task is the most important task.

A project objective can be the difference between a project being a success or a failure.

So how to you determine a good project objective?

Be as specific as you can! Global climate change is a very complex problem. Break a complex problem down into simple problems and determine a simple project objective.

• Simple project objectives are more likely to be a success and provide progress towards the broader goal.
• Complex project objectives are more likely to be a failure and provide no progress towards the broader goal.

A project objective must be measurable to know if the project has been a success or a failure (next outcome).

These are less important:

“In science, if you know what you are doing, you should not be doing it. In engineering, if you do not know what you are doing, you should not be doing it.” - Richard Hamming

In data science you don’t know what you are doing. So you probably don’t know if it is achievable or time-bound.

Relevance is important. All projects have stakeholders. These are the people that determine if your project objectives are relevant or not.

Think about the result of a project success. Would this satisfy the stakeholders?

Since your project objective is measurable. The project success criteria is just a threshold. If the measure is above/below the threshold the project is a success/failure.

Determining the threshold requires the project stakeholders.

Try producing a project objective and project success criteria for your project.

• examples?
• challenges?

The determine data science question task has two outcomes:

1. data science questions
2. data science success criteria

• the outcomes of the determine project objectives task are project objectives
• a data science project attempts to achieve the project objectives with data
• the project objectives are connected to data with data science questions

A data science question is a question that requires data to answer. In the paper What is the question?, Jeffery Leek and Roger Peng identify six types of data science question.

1. descriptive
2. exploratory
3. estimative
4. predictive
5. causal
6. mechanistic

Identifying the type of a question can be very hard. To make this easier we introduce some terms.

• Observed Data is in the dataset
• Unobserved Data is not in the dataset
• Group is a set of data points
• Individual is a data point

• Descriptive: questions about the observed data
  • e.g. What is the maximum observed temperature?

Questions about unobserved data require models. These questions are model-based questions.

• Estimative: questions about a group of unobserved data
  • e.g. What is the mean temperature over a region (spatial group) over a time period (temporal group)?
• Predictive: questions about an individual unobserved datum
  • e.g. What is the temperature at a location (individual spatial location) at a time (individual temporal point)?

It is well known that correlation does not imply causation. So it is important to know when a question requires a causal answer or not.

• Causal: causal estimative questions
• Mechanistic: causal predictive questions

• Descriptive Question: descriptive questions use tables and figures to summaries the dataset

Model-based

Why are question types important?

1. different question types require different techniques
   • e.g. Machine Learning for predictive questions
   • e.g. Bayesian Statistics for estimative questions
2. answering a question type can be easy or hard
   • e.g. individual \(>\) group
   • e.g. causal \(>\) non-causal
   • e.g. model-based \(>\) model-free
3. answer easy question types before hard question types

Project objectives might require question types that requires:

1. techniques that you do not currently have
2. tools that you do not currently have

This can help identify areas of improvement.

data science success criteria are about identifying when data science questions have been answered sufficiently. A criterion can be objective or subjective:

• objective: predict temperature with 98% accuracy
• subjective: develop insights temperature trends

The person responsible for each subjective success criterion must be included.

Try producing a data science question and data science success criteria for your project.

• examples?
• challenges?

This is the most important figure.

I am convinced that good project objectives, relevant data and good data science questions is what differentiates good and great data scientists.